Growing fears of Rp20,000 per dollar push investors to shift savings strategies
As the rupiah continues to weaken, more Indonesians are rethinking how they protect their money and prepare for uncertainty.
Shift in Financial Behavior
The weakening rupiah is no longer just a macroeconomic headline. For many Indonesians, it is changing how they manage their finances. Individuals like Rayan, a private-sector worker in Jakarta, have begun increasing their holdings in foreign currencies, treating them not only as a transaction tool but also as a hedge against risk.
Initially holding a simple portfolio of stocks, deposits, and mutual funds, Rayan began saving foreign currencies in early 2025. Today, he regularly accumulates assets in US dollars, Singapore dollars, euros, and Thai baht, while maintaining a balanced investment allocation.
A Broader Trend Emerging
Rayan’s behavior reflects a wider national trend. Data from the Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan shows that foreign currency accounts surged by 50.8 percent year-on-year, reaching 7.67 million accounts as of February 2026.
In contrast, rupiah-denominated accounts grew at a much slower pace of 9.8 percent, signaling a shift in public confidence and preference amid currency volatility.
Rupiah Continues to Slide
The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated significantly over the past 18 months. Since late October 2024, the exchange rate has weakened from around Rp15,647 to approximately Rp17,218 per US dollar by April 28, 2026.
At one point, the currency briefly touched Rp17,300 per dollar before closing at Rp17,308 based on the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate. Year-to-date depreciation has reached around 3.4 percent, highlighting persistent pressure on the currency.
Fear of a Worst-Case Scenario
Public concern is growing, particularly around the possibility of the rupiah falling to Rp20,000 per US dollar. While still hypothetical, the scenario has sparked widespread discussion on social media and among economic observers.
Wijayanto Samirin, a senior economist from Paramadina University, warned that such a level could trigger immediate and serious economic consequences.
Potential Economic Impact
If the rupiah were to reach Rp20,000 per dollar, several major effects could unfold:
– Rising inflation driven by more expensive imported goods
– Increased debt burden for both government and private sectors
– Higher capital outflow as investor confidence weakens
These pressures could directly impact everyday life, including higher prices for basic goods, electronics, and education costs.
Underlying Causes of Weakness
Economists point to multiple structural and policy-related factors behind the rupiah’s decline. These include concerns over government communication, fiscal policy stability, and Indonesia’s balance of payments.
One key issue is the growing primary income deficit, where outflows to foreign investors exceed inflows. In 2025, this deficit reached approximately US$38.2 billion, significantly outweighing foreign direct investment.
Additionally, portfolio investments recorded a net outflow of US$9.4 billion, further weakening the currency outlook.
Balancing Risk and Opportunity
Despite the uncertainty, financial experts advise against panic-driven decisions. Diversification, as practiced by investors like Rayan, remains a key strategy in managing risk.
Foreign currency savings can serve as a hedge, but overexposure may also carry risks if exchange rates stabilize or reverse. Maintaining a balanced portfolio is still considered the most sustainable approach.
The rupiah’s decline underscores deeper economic challenges while reshaping how Indonesians manage wealth. For Indonesia, it highlights the urgency of strengthening fiscal stability and investor confidence. For Singapore and the broader region, the situation reflects how interconnected economies can feel the ripple effects of currency volatility in Southeast Asia.
Sources: Tirto ID (2026) , Kontan (2026)
Keywords: Rupiah Depreciation, Foreign Currency Savings, USD Indonesia, Inflation Risk, Investment Diversification
