Bank Indonesia and Finance Ministry say fundamentals remain solid despite negative outlook revision
Indonesia’s economic authorities moved quickly to reassure markets after Moody’s adjusted the country’s credit outlook, stressing that macroeconomic fundamentals and policy discipline remain firmly intact.
Moody’s Revises Outlook but Keeps Rating
Moody’s Ratings has revised Indonesia’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative while maintaining the country’s Baa2 rating, one notch above the investment grade threshold. The decision followed an assessment process that included meetings with Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, and several other key institutions in Jakarta between January 27 and 29, 2026.
BI Says Fundamentals Remain Strong
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the outlook adjustment does not reflect weakening economic fundamentals. Instead, he noted the revision was influenced by Moody’s assessment of rising global uncertainty and concerns over policy predictability. Perry emphasized that Indonesia’s domestic economic performance remains resilient despite volatile global conditions.
Solid Growth and Controlled Inflation
Indonesia’s economy grew 5.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing full year growth to 5.1 percent. Inflation remained well managed at 2.9 percent, staying within the official target range. Perry added that Bank Indonesia remains committed to safeguarding rupiah stability through a consistent policy mix.
Financial System and External Resilience
The central bank highlighted that financial system stability remains intact, supported by ample liquidity, strong bank capital buffers, and low credit risk. Externally, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$2.51 billion in December 2025, driven by strong non oil and gas exports from both natural resources and manufacturing sectors.
Strong Reserves and Balanced Outlook
Foreign exchange reserves rose to US$156.5 billion at the end of December 2025, equivalent to 6.4 months of imports. Bank Indonesia projects economic growth of 4.9 to 5.7 percent in 2026 and 5.1 to 5.9 percent in 2027, with inflation expected to remain under control and the current account deficit contained within 0.9 to 0.1 percent of GDP.
Finance Ministry Highlights Fiscal Discipline
The Ministry of Finance echoed BI’s stance, noting that Moody’s still recognizes Indonesia’s economic resilience as a core credit strength. Fiscal indicators remain manageable, with government debt levels under control and policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities continuing to support stability and growth.
Policy Reform and Investor Confidence
The government also pointed to ongoing structural reforms and investment acceleration efforts, including the role of Danantara as a new growth engine. Moody’s emphasized the importance of predictable policymaking, clear public communication, and strong interagency coordination as Indonesia pursues higher long term growth.
The coordinated response from Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance underscores confidence in Indonesia’s economic direction amid global uncertainty. While the outlook revision serves as a reminder of external risks, the country’s steady growth, fiscal prudence, and institutional capacity continue to support market confidence across the region, including among investors in Singapore.
Sources: CNN (2026) , Bisnis Com (2026)
Keywords: Moody’s Indonesia, BI Response, Credit Outlook Negative, Indonesia Economy Growth, Fiscal Stability
