Rising fires in Riau and Kalimantan intensify concern ahead of El Nino
Indonesia is entering 2026 under mounting climate pressure, with fires already spreading across vulnerable provinces before El Nino has fully arrived. The early surge is reviving fears of another severe haze crisis that could affect both Indonesia and neighboring Singapore.
A Dry Season Threat Emerges Early
Indonesia is bracing for an unusually harsh and prolonged dry season in 2026, with forest and land fires already increasing before the expected onset of El Nino. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG, has forecast a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of a weak to moderate El Nino developing in the second half of 2026. On March 19, the National Research and Innovation Agency, or BRIN, issued an even more alarming warning, saying a massive climate event described as “Godzilla El Nino” could begin affecting the country from April.
Riau Becomes the Main Flashpoint
The most immediate concern is Riau, where 2,713 hectares of forest and land burned between January 1 and March 24, according to the National Disaster Management Agency, or BNPB. The province recorded roughly double the number of fires seen during the same period in 2025. In response to declining rainfall and rising hot spots, the Riau administration declared an emergency alert for forest and land fires on February 13, effective until November 30. Edy Afrizal, head of Riau’s provincial disaster management agency, told The Straits Times that temperatures have been much hotter this year, with expected rainfall in late January and March failing to materialize.
Why Riau Matters to Singapore
Riau holds particular regional importance because it has historically been one of the main contributors to the transboundary haze that affected Singapore and other parts of Southeast Asia in 2013 and 2015. Geographically, it is Indonesia’s second-closest province to Singapore after the Riau Islands, where Batam is located. Dumai city, along with Pelalawan and Bengkalis regencies, is currently among the worst-hit areas. In Dumai, about 400 residents have already been affected by haze drifting from fire hot spots outside their villages, although local officials said conditions have not yet reached levels severe enough to disrupt daily life or trigger major health impacts.
Air and Ground Operations Intensify
Authorities have stepped up firefighting efforts in response. Since March 24, six helicopter water bombing missions have been carried out over affected areas in Riau, while cloud-seeding operations in late February and March successfully triggered rainfall within hours, according to local officials. However, Edy said one helicopter currently operating in Riau is far from enough, noting that the ideal number would be between eight and 12 water bombing helicopters. On the ground, village officers, volunteers, and provincial disaster teams continue to battle fires in plantations and open land, including in Bengkalis, where some fires have reached rubber plantation zones.
A Familiar Regional Warning
The danger extends beyond Riau. BNPB said Central Kalimantan and the Riau Islands are also seeing an increase in hot spots, though with less severity. In Central Kalimantan, 321 hectares burned between January 1 and March 25. The province remains deeply associated with the catastrophic 2015 fires, when around 584,000 hectares burned there and another 139,000 hectares burned in Riau. That disaster caused toxic haze across Indonesia, Singapore, and parts of Malaysia, shut schools, businesses, and airports, and contributed to acute respiratory infections in more than 500,000 people in Indonesia, according to BNPB. To curb further outbreaks, police in the Riau Islands have also launched a social media campaign warning against land burning, stressing that offenders can face up to 15 years in prison.
The early rise in forest and land fires shows that Indonesia’s 2026 dry season could become a serious regional test long before El Nino peaks. For Indonesians, the stakes include public health, livelihoods, and environmental damage. For Singaporeans, the developments in Riau and nearby provinces are a reminder that haze risk is once again tied closely to weather patterns, enforcement, and the speed of Indonesia’s fire response. With painful memories from 2015 still fresh, the coming months will be critical.
Sources: Straits Times (2026) , The Star (2026)
Keywords: Indonesia Fire Risk, Riau Forest Fires, El Nino 2026, Transboundary Haze, BNPB, BMKG, Kalimantan Fires
