Lower rainfall forecasts prompt regional fire alerts ahead of a longer dry season
Indonesia is entering a more dangerous dry season, with officials in several provinces already raising wildfire alerts as lower rainfall and prolonged dry weather threaten forests, farmland, and water supplies.
Fire Alerts Issued in Key Regions
Several wildfire-prone areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan have issued early warnings as Indonesia approaches the dry season. Central Kalimantan declared a 90-day wildfire alert on March 9, while regencies in North Sumatra and West Kalimantan also raised concerns after new hot spots were detected.
Riau had already moved earlier, issuing a 10-month alert in mid-February after rising temperatures and weaker rainfall contributed to more than 1,000 hectares burning since the start of 2026.
BMKG Predicts Drier and Longer Conditions
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency said most parts of the country will enter the dry season between late March and May, with the peak expected in August. Parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Java are among the areas expected to feel the impact.
BMKG also warned that this year’s dry season is likely to bring lower rainfall than in previous years. The season is expected to last longer than the 30-year average, increasing the risk of drought, crop damage, and land fires.
Some Regions Face Months of Water Stress
Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara are expected to face especially long dry periods of around 10 months. Sumatra and Kalimantan will likely have shorter dry seasons, at around six and nine months respectively, but authorities still expect wildfire risks to rise because of reduced rainfall.
BMKG has urged local governments to secure reliable access to water in anticipation of severe drought. The warning comes after prolonged droughts in East Java in 2025 left around 1,300 households in 43 villages without water access.
Peatlands Remain a Major Threat
Indonesia’s Environment and Forestry Ministry has identified several fire-vulnerable provinces for 2026, including Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Papua. Officials said priority mitigation efforts will focus on areas with peatland ecosystems and a history of fire.
Peatlands are especially dangerous because they become highly flammable when drained for plantations such as oil palm and pulpwood. Once dry, they can ignite naturally or through human activity and are notoriously difficult to extinguish.
Authorities Push Prevention Before Peak Season
The National Disaster Mitigation Agency has urged the public not to burn waste or clear land using fire. It also said it is ready to carry out weather modification operations if recommended by BMKG.
The warning comes after 212,000 hectares of forest and land burned across Indonesia in 2025, with the worst fires recorded in North Sumatra, West Kalimantan, and East Nusa Tenggara. This year, officials are trying to move earlier to prevent another severe fire season.
Indonesia’s latest fire alerts show that the country is preparing for a drier and potentially more destructive season than usual. For Indonesians, the challenge will be protecting forests, farms, and water supplies before the peak dry months arrive. For Singaporeans, the developments matter too, because severe fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan can quickly become a regional problem through haze, disrupted agriculture, and wider environmental damage across Southeast Asia.
Sources: Straits Times (2026) , EN Tempo (2026)
Keywords: Indonesia Dry Season 2026, Sumatra Wildfire Risk, Kalimantan Fire Alert, BMKG Rainfall Forecast, Drought And Crop Failure
