Singapore’s military presence in Taiwan raises growing risks amid escalating cross-Strait tensions

Singapore’s quiet but deep military footprint in Taiwan is emerging as a strategic liability as cross-Strait tensions intensify, forcing the city-state to reassess a decades-old defense arrangement that now carries rising geopolitical risks.

Singapore’s Largest Overseas Military Presence
No foreign country maintains a larger military footprint in Taiwan than Singapore. Around 3,000 Singapore Armed Forces personnel rotate through the island annually under Project Starlight, a bilateral defense agreement signed in 1975. The arrangement has long been vital for Singapore’s military readiness due to its limited land space, even though it is rarely acknowledged publicly by Singaporean officials.

Beijing’s Growing Sensitivity
For decades, China largely tolerated this unofficial defense relationship. That changed in 2016 when Chinese authorities seized nine Terrex infantry carrier vehicles transiting through Hong Kong, signaling Beijing’s displeasure. Since then, tensions have worsened, especially under Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, whose rhetoric has coincided with record levels of Chinese military activity. More than 2,000 Chinese warplane sorties were recorded in the first 10 months of Lai’s administration, according to regional security data.

Rising Risks For Singapore
A conflict across the Taiwan Strait would place Singapore in an untenable position. Thousands of SAF personnel could become stranded or used as leverage if evacuation routes are blocked. A United States 7th Fleet intervention would likely require logistical support from Singapore, increasing the risk of retaliation by the People’s Liberation Army. Economically, a Chinese blockade could disrupt up to one-fifth of global maritime trade passing through the Taiwan Strait, dealing a severe blow to Singapore’s port-dependent economy.

Project Starlight As A Strategic Deterrent
Despite the risks, Project Starlight also acts as a deterrent. Any harm to Singaporean troops or facilities in Taiwan would seriously damage China’s ties with Singapore, its largest cumulative source of foreign direct investment. Such an incident could also justify stronger United States involvement, given Singapore’s status as a major security cooperation partner. Successive Taiwanese governments have continued leasing military facilities to the SAF, aware of the stabilizing effect Singapore’s presence provides.

Political Signals From Taipei
However, Singapore’s continued commitment is not unconditional. President Lai’s pro-independence messaging has failed to deliver domestic political gains. His Democratic Progressive Party lost its legislative majority in Taiwan’s 2024 general election, and a subsequent recall campaign against opposition lawmakers failed entirely. These outcomes reflect growing public unease over escalating tensions with China and create an opening for diplomatic recalibration.

A More Transactional Approach
Singapore now faces a strategic choice. Remaining rhetorically neutral while its troops face rising danger is increasingly risky. As in 2004, when then Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made clear that Singapore would not support Taiwanese independence, Singapore may need to reassert its red lines. This could include warning Taipei that further provocations endanger SAF personnel and that a gradual withdrawal remains an option, as troop numbers have already fallen from 10,000 in the past to 3,000 today.

Singapore’s military presence in Taiwan has long balanced deterrence with diplomacy, but worsening China-Taiwan relations are testing that equilibrium. A more assertive and transactional approach could help de-escalate tensions while safeguarding Singapore’s soldiers, economy, and regional standing. The outcome matters not only for Singapore and Taiwan, but also for Indonesia and the wider region that depends on stability in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.

Sources: Asia Times (2026)

Keywords: Project Starlight, Singapore Taiwan Military, Cross Strait Tensions, China Taiwan Conflict, SAF Overseas Training