Record-low births and rapid aging deepen economic and workforce challenges
China’s long-feared demographic turning point is accelerating, with fresh data confirming a sharper population decline that is reshaping its economic future and social structure.
Record Population Decline Deepens
China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, shrinking by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, according to data released on Jan 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marked a faster decline than in 2024, underscoring the growing severity of the country’s demographic challenges.
The number of births plunged to a record low of 7.92 million in 2025, down 17 percent from 9.54 million a year earlier. At the same time, deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, pushing the national birth rate down to just 5.63 per 1,000 people.
Birth Levels Not Seen in Centuries
Demographers warn that China has entered uncharted territory. Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison noted that births in 2025 were “roughly the same level as in 1738,” when China’s population was only about 150 million. Meanwhile, the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.
China’s fertility rate now stands at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Similar trends are seen in other East Asian economies such as Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, where fertility rates hover near 1.1.
Rapid Aging and Workforce Pressure
An aging population is compounding the issue. People aged 60 and above now account for about 23 percent of China’s total population. By 2035, this group is projected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy.
This shift means hundreds of millions will exit the workforce as pension systems face mounting strain. In response, China has already raised retirement ages, with men now expected to work until 63 and women until 58, according to official policy changes.
Marriage Trends Offer Limited Relief
Marriage patterns continue to weigh heavily on birth prospects. In 2024, marriages plunged by nearly 20 percent to just over 6.1 million couples, the steepest drop on record. Since marriage is a key indicator for births in China, this decline raised alarm among policymakers.
A May 2025 reform allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country offered a brief boost. Marriages rose 22.5 percent year on year to 1.61 million in the third quarter of 2025, though full-year data has yet to be released.
Urbanization and Policy Costs
Urbanization has further intensified the challenge. China’s urbanization rate reached 68 percent in 2025, up from about 43 percent in 2005, making child-rearing significantly more expensive for young families. As a result, population planning has become central to Beijing’s economic strategy.
Reuters estimates that China faces potential costs of around 180 billion yuan to encourage births. Measures include a national child subsidy and a pledge that, from 2026, women will have no out-of-pocket medical expenses during pregnancy, including full reimbursement for IVF under the national insurance system.
Long-Term Demographic Outlook
Despite these efforts, the long-term outlook remains sobering. The United Nations projects that China’s pool of women of reproductive age could shrink by more than two-thirds to below 100 million by the end of the century. This trend threatens sustained economic growth, domestic consumption, and fiscal stability.
China’s accelerating population decline highlights a structural challenge with far-reaching implications across Asia. For Indonesians and Singaporeans, the shift matters not only economically but also strategically, as China’s demographic slowdown reshapes regional labor markets, consumption patterns, and long-term growth dynamics.
Sources: CNA (2026) , CNN (2026)
Keywords: China Population, Birth Rate, Aging Population, One Child Policy, Demographic Crisis
