Scientists say H5 avian influenza remains low-risk but demands stronger global readiness

Health experts are sounding the alarm over the rising risks of bird flu, warning that a mutation enabling human-to-human transmission could trigger a pandemic more severe than Covid-19.

Rising Concerns Over Virus Adaptation

Bird flu, or highly pathogenic avian influenza, has swept through wild birds, poultry, and even mammals in recent years, leading to the culling of hundreds of millions of animals. Dr Marie Anne Rameix Welti, medical director at France’s Institut Pasteur Respiratory Infections Center, cautioned that the greatest threat lies in the virus adapting to infect humans more effectively. If the H5 strain gains the ability to spread between people, she said, it could become a pandemic level virus.

Limited Immunity and Higher Mortality Risks

Unlike seasonal H1 and H3 flu strains, humans have no antibodies against H5 viruses. Dr Rameix Welti noted that this mirrors the early days of Covid 19, when populations had no prior immunity. She added that flu viruses are capable of killing healthy individuals, including children, which makes a potential H5 pandemic particularly dangerous.

Global Cases and Emerging Strains

Human infections remain rare, typically occurring in people in close contact with infected animals. However, recent developments have intensified monitoring. The United States recorded its first ever human case of H5N5 in Washington state this November, and the patient later died. The World Health Organization has documented nearly 1,000 human outbreaks of avian flu from 2003 to 2025, mostly in Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam, with a fatality rate of 48%.

Balancing Risk and Preparedness

Despite alarming statistics, the probability of a human pandemic remains low. Dr Gregorio Torres of the World Organisation for Animal Health emphasized that people can continue daily activities safely. He acknowledged the possibility of mutation but stressed that the current likelihood of widespread human transmission is minimal.

Greater Preparedness Than Before Covid

Experts agree that global readiness is stronger than it was in 2019. Dr Rameix Welti highlighted that vaccine candidates for avian influenza already exist, and manufacturing processes can be activated quickly if necessary. Countries also maintain antiviral stockpiles that could work against H5 strains, providing an important first line of defense.

Importance of Continuous Surveillance

The ongoing spread of bird flu across multiple continents reinforces the need for early detection, rapid response, and close cooperation between animal and human health agencies. Scientific institutions such as Institut Pasteur and international bodies like WHO continue to update protocols, monitor mutations and coordinate global preparedness strategies.

While a human bird flu pandemic remains an unlikely scenario, the warnings from leading health authorities underscore the importance of vigilance. For communities across Southeast Asia, including Indonesia and Singapore, strengthening surveillance systems and emergency response plans will be key to staying ahead of future outbreaks and protecting public health.

Sources: Straits Times (2025) , The Japan Times (2025)

Keywords: Avian Influenza, H5 Virus Mutation, Human Transmission Risk, Pandemic Warning, Global Health Experts