iPhone upgrade boom and new device lineup position Apple to surpass Samsung after 18 years
Apple is projected to reclaim its position as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025, its first time since 2011 and maintain that lead until 2029. New findings from Counterpoint Research reveal strong momentum driven by the upcoming iPhone 17 series and a surge of consumer upgrades across major markets.
Apple Set to Surpass Samsung in 2025
Counterpoint Research estimates that iPhone shipments will grow by 10% in 2025, significantly outpacing Samsung’s expected 4.6% growth. With the global market rising just 3.3%, Apple is projected to secure a 19.4% market share, placing it at the top of annual smartphone sales for the first time in 18 years.
Strong Demand From US and China
The United States and China, where are Apple’s two largest markets, are driving the surge. Many users who purchased iPhones during the Covid-19 pandemic are now entering a major upgrade cycle. Analysts also highlight that 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, a trend that often leads to new device purchases later.
New Device Lineup Fuels Long-Term Momentum
Bloomberg reports that Apple is preparing several high-impact products for 2026 and 2027, including an iPhone Fold, the iPhone 17e, and a special 20th anniversary iPhone. These devices are expected to push sales further, helping Apple maintain its global lead through 2029.
Install Base Tells a Different Story
Despite the projected sales leadership, Android still dominates the global installed base with over 70% share. Apple leads only in certain markets such as the US, where iOS penetration is nearing 60%. The diversity of Android manufacturers, from budget to premium, keeps its active device count far ahead of Apple’s.
Strategic Advantage of a Smaller Install Base
Analysts note that being the top seller without being the dominant platform provides Apple with flexibility. A relatively smaller installed base helps the company avoid some monopoly accusations and regulatory scrutiny faced by larger ecosystems, while allowing it to capture premium segments with stronger margins.
Apple Enters a Rare Growth Cycle
With multiple new models in the pipeline and an unusually strong upgrade window, Apple is entering what could be its most significant growth phase since the launch of the iPhone X. Counterpoint’s long-term projections point to extended leadership as the company leverages innovation, brand strength, and high consumer loyalty.
Apple’s projected rise to the top of the global smartphone market signals a major shift in the tech landscape. The company’s innovation pipeline and loyal user base could reshape competition through 2029, influencing market dynamics not only in the US and China but also across Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia and Singapore where smartphone adoption trends continue to evolve.
Sources: VOI.ID (2025) , Tech In Asia (2025)
Keywords: Apple Growth, Counterpoint Report, Smartphone Forecast, iPhone Demand, Market Share 2029
