Ankara fears becoming Israel’s next target as rivalry deepens over Syria, Gaza, and the Mediterranean.
After Israel’s recent strikes on Qatar, attention in pro-Israel circles shifted toward Turkiye, sparking fears that Ankara may be Tel Aviv’s next regional target. Turkish leaders responded with unusually sharp rhetoric, underscoring escalating tensions between the two powers.
Israel’s Aggressive Posture
Pro-Israel commentators, including American Enterprise Institute fellow Michael Rubin and Israeli political figures, openly suggested that Turkiye could be Israel’s next target. On social media, the phrase “Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey” quickly gained traction. Ankara’s reaction was fierce: a senior adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel “the dog of Zionist Israel” and threatened its eventual disappearance.
Ankara’s Retaliation
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suspended economic and trade ties with Israel in August, citing Tel Aviv’s ongoing war in Gaza and broader regional aggression. The move followed months of escalating rhetoric framing Turkiye as Israel’s “most dangerous enemy,” particularly due to Ankara’s involvement in post-war Syria and influence in the eastern Mediterranean.
Questioning NATO Security
Analysts argue that the Qatar strikes highlighted a critical vulnerability for Ankara. Despite Doha’s designation as a “major non-NATO ally” of Washington, the US offered no visible pushback against Israel’s attack. This raised serious doubts in Ankara about whether NATO would honor Article 5 commitments if Israel targeted Turkiye. As Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council noted, Turkiye “long ago understood that it cannot rely on the US or NATO for its own national security interests.”
Netanyahu’s “Greater Israel” Vision
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further inflamed tensions by affirming his belief in the concept of “Greater Israel,” an expansionist idea that some religious Zionists claim extends into Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. Turkish officials see this as a direct threat to regional sovereignty. “The aim is to keep the countries in the region weak and divided,” warned Fidan, pointing to Israel’s recent strikes in Yemen, Syria, Tunisia, and Gaza.
A Geopolitical Rivalry
Experts describe the situation as a “controlled rivalry,” with both nations recognizing the costs of open conflict. However, friction is growing in Syria, where Turkiye supports a centralized state while Israel favors a federal structure with autonomous regions. Retired admiral Cem Gurdeniz warned that clashes over military bases and maritime strategy could push the rivalry into confrontation, especially with Israel’s deepening presence in Cyprus alongside Greece.
Strategic Calculations Ahead
Ankara’s strategy now centers on strengthening deterrence through advanced missile and air-defense systems, expanding intelligence capabilities, and building regional coalitions with Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq. Analysts suggest that future flashpoints will likely emerge in the “grey zone” — proxy wars, covert operations, and targeted strikes — rather than direct military declarations.
Israel’s regional aggression and Netanyahu’s expansionist rhetoric have placed Turkiye on edge, straining ties not only with Tel Aviv but also with Washington and NATO. For Ankara, the challenge is balancing deterrence and diplomacy while preparing for conflicts that may unfold in Syria, the Mediterranean, or beyond.
Sources: Al Jazeera (2025) , The Economic Times (2025)
Keywords: Israel Turkiye Conflict, Greater Israel Vision, NATO Security Guarantees, Ankara Israel Rivalry, Gaza War, Eastern Mediterranean
