Analysts Predict Early Polls as Opposition Gains Momentum
Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) is bracing for its most competitive election yet, as the country heads toward its General Election 2025 (GE2025). With increasing opposition strength, internal party challenges, and economic uncertainties, analysts predict a highly contested political landscape.
Adding to the anticipation, the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has been convened, a sign that the election is drawing closer. Speculation is rife that the polls could take place as early as May 2025, following the national Budget announcement in February.
This election marks a potential turning point in Singapore’s political history, with the opposition parties showing increasing organization and public engagement.
PAP’s Dominance Faces New Challenges
For decades, the PAP has enjoyed uninterrupted rule, thanks to Singapore’s strong economic growth, good governance, and strategic policies. However, shifting political sentiments have seen opposition parties gain ground in recent elections.
While PAP has historically tilted the electoral playing field by employing strategies such as multi-member constituencies (GRCs) and stringent defamation lawsuits, opposition parties are now better organized and more competitive than ever.
Analysts suggest that a combination of economic challenges, rising cost of living, and internal party scandals could further erode PAP’s electoral stronghold.
When Will GE2025 Be Held?
The election must be held by November 2025, but political observers expect it much earlier. The formation of the EBRC—which typically signals an impending election—has fueled speculation that Singaporeans may go to the polls in May 2025.
Former PAP MP Inderjit Singh and former Nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin both agree that an early election is likely, especially to avoid the June school holidays and major events such as the Shangri-La Dialogue (May 30 – June 1).
Associate Professor Bilveer Singh from NUS suggests that Parliament could be dissolved by mid-April, paving the way for a May election. However, others argue that a later date—such as September or November—remains a possibility.
Electoral Boundary Changes and Their Impact
One of the most closely watched aspects of the upcoming election is how electoral boundaries may be redrawn. The EBRC has been tasked with maintaining the current structure, which includes:
- More Single-Member Constituencies (SMCs)
- Smaller Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs)
- A stable MP-to-voter ratio
With Singapore’s voter roll increasing to 2.71 million in 2024, adjustments to constituency sizes are expected.
According to Institute of Policy Studies’ Gillian Koh, changes are likely in rapidly growing areas such as Punggol, Tengah, Bidadari, and Yishun, where new housing estates have significantly increased voter numbers.
Other possible boundary shifts include:
- West Coast GRC and Jurong GRC, due to new developments in Tengah.
- Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, with spillover effects on Tampines and East Coast.
- Hougang, Aljunied GRC, and Sengkang GRC, which remain key opposition strongholds.
Could Three-Member GRCs Return?
Another topic of debate is the potential return of three-member GRCs, last seen in 1988. While some analysts believe smaller GRCs would benefit opposition parties by making it easier to field candidates, others argue that it could actually favor the PAP, as fewer MPs would be lost per contested constituency.
Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from NUS believes that smaller GRCs would increase voter engagement but could also intensify electoral competition. Meanwhile, Zulkifli Baharudin suggests that introducing more three-member GRCs could enhance minority representation in Parliament.
The 2025 election will be closely watched by both Singaporeans and international analysts, given the country’s pivotal role in regional stability. For businesses and investors, political stability remains a key factor in economic confidence.
Internationally, Singapore’s handling of its democratic process—despite being seen as a semi-authoritarian state—will be of particular interest to global policymakers and political observers.
Should the opposition make significant gains, it could reshape Singapore’s political landscape for years to come, increasing the pressure for greater transparency and governance reforms.
Sources: CFR, The Straits Times (2025)
Keywords: Singapore election 2025, PAP political competition, Singapore opposition parties, Singapore electoral boundaries, general election Singapore
